← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Tue, Dec 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 45% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
| Swindon win | 28% | 31% | 3.55 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Swindon −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.01 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Craig Clay · Leyton Orient |
| 19' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Leyton Orient |
| 42' | ⚽ | Harry McKirdy · Swindon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Kemp · Leyton Orient |
| 56' | 🟨 | Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient |
| 59' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Leyton Orient |
| 64' | 🟨 | Harry McKirdy · Swindon |
| 64' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Leyton Orient |
| 76' | 🟨 | Shadrach Ogie · Leyton Orient |
| 82' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Leyton Orient |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Breyer Group Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Louis Reed · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 220.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1508.23 | 1603.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.01 | -2.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 28.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 10.20 | 10.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |