← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale win | 36% | 39% | 2.76 | value: +7% |
| Leyton Orient win | 34% | 36% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rochdale +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Leyton Orient +0 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Alex Newby · Rochdale |
| 11' | 🟨 | Abraham Odoh · Rochdale |
| 15' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Leyton Orient |
| 24' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Leyton Orient |
| 30' | 🟨 | Shadrach Ogie · Leyton Orient |
| 31' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Rochdale |
| 66' | ⚽ | Craig Clay · Leyton Orient |
| 69' | 🟨 | Daniel Kemp · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Coleman · Rochdale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Smith · Leyton Orient |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rochdale | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Crown Oil Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Alex Newby · Rochdale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 988.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1539.37 | 1499.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.45 | 12.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 61.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 14.02 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |