← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Haines
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
| Barrow win | 31% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Walsall −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 53% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 47% | 2.34 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | George Miller · Walsall |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ollie Banks · Barrow |
| 29' | 🟨 | Joe Grayson · Barrow |
| 32' | 🟨 | Patrick Brough · Barrow |
| 36' | ⚽ | George Williams · Barrow |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jordan Stevens · Barrow |
| 62' | ⚽ | George Miller · Walsall |
| 63' | 🟨 | Josh Kay · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Miller · Walsall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hayden White · Walsall |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Banks's Stadium |
| Josh Gordon · Barrow |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 929.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1457.38 | 1459.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.75 | 4.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |