← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Tue, Oct 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Northampton win | 41% | 48% | 2.34 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Stevenage win | 29% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stevenage −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Northampton −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 56% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 44% | 2.56 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand