← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 61% | 60% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.13 | value: +12% |
| Scunthorpe win | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe +1 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Forest Green +1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.94 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Harry Davis · Scunthorpe |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jake Young · Forest Green |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Forest Green |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jake Scrimshaw · Scunthorpe |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jai Rowe · Scunthorpe |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamille Matt · Forest Green |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ebou Adams · Forest Green |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jamille Matt · Forest Green |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Pugh · Scunthorpe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Jarvis · Scunthorpe |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Sands Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Baily Cargill · Forest Green |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Moore-Taylor · Forest Green |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 441.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1348.81 | 1547.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.73 | 22.00 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 2.04 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.80 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -1.53 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |