← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
| Port Vale win | 33% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Port Vale +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 51% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 49% | 2.33 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Nathan Smith · Port Vale |
| 28' | ⚽ | Jamie Proctor · Port Vale |
| 36' | ⚽ | Robert Milsom · Sutton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Port Vale |
| 47' | 🟨 | James Gibbons · Port Vale |
| 67' | 🟨 | David Worrall · Port Vale |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Ben Garrity · Sutton |
| 78' | ⚽ | Tom Conlon · Port Vale |
| 81' | 🟨 | Daniel Jones · Port Vale |
| 87' | ⚽ | Will Randall · Sutton |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sutton | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | VBS Community Stadium |
| Dean Bouzanis · Sutton |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Lloyd · Port Vale |
| 90' | ⚽ | Coby Rowe · Sutton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 922.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1518.38 | 1531.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.43 | 30.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.78 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.07 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.56 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.99 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 2.00 |