← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Sarginson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 42% | 37% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.21 | value: +11% |
| Leyton Orient win | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 42% | 2.59 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | James Wilson · Port Vale |
| 28' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Leyton Orient |
| 31' | 🟨 | Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient |
| 37' | 🟨 | Shadrach Ogie · Leyton Orient |
| 60' | ⚽ (og) | Daniel Jones · Leyton Orient |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Port Vale |
| 74' | 🟨 | Thomas James · Leyton Orient |
| 86' | ⚽ | Thomas James · Leyton Orient |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jake Taylor · Port Vale |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dennis Politic · Port Vale |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| ⚽ |
| Jamie Proctor · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 274.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1524.23 | 1494.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.51 | 47.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| league points | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |