← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Fri, Sep 10, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 42% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Colchester win | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Barrow −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Jordan Stevens · Barrow |
| 35' | ⚽ | Alan Judge · Colchester |
| 38' | ⚽ | Freddie Sears · Colchester |
| 50' | 🟨 | Luke Chambers · Colchester |
| 64' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Colchester |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luke Chambers · Colchester |
| 68' | 🟥 | Luke Chambers · Colchester |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luke Hannant · Colchester |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Ollie Banks · Barrow |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cameron Coxe · Colchester |
| 80' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barrow | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | The Dunes Hotel Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Tom Eastman · Colchester |
| 88' | 🟨 | James Jones · Barrow |
| 88' | 🟨 | Frank Nouble · Colchester |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ollie Banks · Barrow |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cole Skuse · Colchester |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Jones · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟥 | James Jones · Barrow |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 436.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1464.20 | 1449.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.92 | 10.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.83 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |