← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Aug 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 56% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 17% | 19% | 5.75 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Crawley Town −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Nicky Cadden · Forest Green |
| 14' | ⚽ | Jake Hessenthaler · Crawley Town |
| 24' | ⚽ | Mathew Stevens · Forest Green |
| 27' | 🟨 | Tony Craig · Crawley Town |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jake Hessenthaler · Crawley Town |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jamille Matt · Forest Green |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Forest Green |
| 67' | ⚽ | Nicky Cadden · Forest Green |
| 68' | ⚽ | Nicky Cadden · Forest Green |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Forest Green |
| 86' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | The Fully Charged New Lawn |
| ⚽ |
| Kwesi Appiah · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kwesi Appiah · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 112.00 | 629.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.77 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1389.80 | 1298.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 67.58 | -13.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -1.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.10 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |