← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 58% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 18% | 23% | 5.75 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Crawley Town +0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Antoni Sarcevic · Bolton |
| 12' | 🟨 | George Francomb · Crawley Town |
| 26' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · Bolton |
| 32' | 🟨 | George Francomb · Crawley Town |
| 32' | 🟥 | George Francomb · Crawley Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nick Tsaroulla · Crawley Town |
| 48' | ⚽ | Eoin Doyle · Bolton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ashley Nadesan · Crawley Town |
| 77' | ⚽ | Lloyd Isgrove · Bolton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jack Powell · Crawley Town |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 23 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The People's Pension Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Davide Rodari · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 524.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1313.38 | 1396.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.65 | 3.73 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 61.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.04 | 28.89 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |