← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pollard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Cambridge win | 36% | 37% | 2.70 | fair |
| Leyton Orient win | 34% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cambridge +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Leyton Orient +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 65% | 1.65 | value: +8% |
| Over | 42% | 35% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Breyer Group Stadium |