← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Haines
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Barrow win | 37% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Port Vale win | 31% | 32% | 3.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barrow +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Port Vale +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 56% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 44% | 2.70 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Progression Solicitors Stadium |