← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Fri, Apr 9, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham win | 36% | 40% | 2.69 | value: +8% |
| Colchester win | 35% | 34% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Colchester +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Conor McAleny · Oldham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Tom Eastman · Colchester |
| 42' | ⚽ | Alfie McCalmont · Oldham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Carl Piergianni · Oldham |
| 64' | ⚽ | Frank Nouble · Colchester |
| 66' | 🟨 | Carl Piergianni · Oldham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dylan Bahamboula · Oldham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Oldham |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tom Eastman · Colchester |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nicky Adams · Oldham |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oldham | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Boundary Park |
| 🟨 |
| Ben Stevenson · Colchester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 39.00 | 67.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1451.86 | 1417.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.88 | -14.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -1.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 48.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 4.17 | 4.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.02 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |