← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Fri, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 41% | 45% | 2.37 | value: +6% |
| Morecambe win | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Cambridge −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Paul Mullin · Cambridge |
| 51' | 🟨 | Carlos Mendes Gomes · Morecambe |
| 55' | 🟥 | Liam Gibson · Morecambe |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Mullin · Cambridge |
| 82' | 🟨 | Aaron Wildig · Morecambe |
| 83' | 🟨 | Greg Taylor · Cambridge |
| 87' | 🟨 | Joe Ironside · Cambridge |
| 88' | ⚽ | Freddie Price · Morecambe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum Burton · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul Digby · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| coach days | 457.00 | 518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1398.54 | 1362.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.90 | 21.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 67.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 53.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 5.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -2.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |