← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Fri, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Mason
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Newport County win | 36% | 40% | 2.74 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 32% | 24% | 3.00 | fair |
| Barrow win | 32% | 36% | 3.01 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Newport County +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Barrow +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 67% | 56% | 1.42 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 44% | 2.95 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Progression Solicitors Stadium |