← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bolton win | 54% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
| Walsall win | 18% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Walsall −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Bolton −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 44% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | University of Bolton Stadium |