← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Huxtable
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 40% | 45% | 2.39 | value: +8% |
| Oldham win | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Cambridge +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
| 11' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Mullin · Cambridge |
| 27' | 🟨 | Greg Taylor · Cambridge |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jack Iredale · Cambridge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam O'Neil · Cambridge |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jack Iredale · Cambridge |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jack Iredale · Cambridge |
| 73' | ⚽ | Luke Hannant · Cambridge |
| 76' | 🟨 | Declan Drysdale · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 13 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oldham | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Boundary Park |
| coach days | 12.00 | 437.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1298.45 | 1365.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.10 | -17.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.83 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 69.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 25.74 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |