← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 41% | 51% | 2.40 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.22 | fair |
| Bradford win | 29% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Carlisle −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 64% | 1.62 | value: +4% |
| Over | 41% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Bradford |
| 37' | ⚽ | Rhys Bennett · Carlisle |
| 39' | ⚽ | Rhys Bennett · Carlisle |
| 56' | ⚽ | Offrande Zanzala · Carlisle |
| 64' | ⚽ | Paudie O’Connor · Bradford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Levi Sutton · Bradford |
| 73' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Bradford |
| 74' | 🟨 | Offrande Zanzala · Carlisle |
| 79' | 🟨 | Paul Farman · Carlisle |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lewis Alessandra · Carlisle |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| 🟨 |
| Omari Patrick · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Rowe · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 498.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1465.12 | 1525.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -58.96 | 11.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 68.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 44.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.97 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.27 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |