← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 45% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
| Oldham win | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Oldham −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
| 8' | 🟨 | Peter Clarke · Tranmere |
| 8' | 🟨 | Sido Jombati · Oldham |
| 31' | 🟨 | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
| 42' | ⚽ | Calum MacDonald · Tranmere |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kaiyne Woolery · Tranmere |
| 47' | 🟨 | Sido Jombati · Oldham |
| 47' | 🟥 | Sido Jombati · Oldham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Kaiyne Woolery · Tranmere |
| 78' | ⚽ | Dylan Bahamboula · Oldham |
| 87' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| 🟨 |
| George Blackwood · Oldham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul Lewis · Tranmere |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 111.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1521.71 | 1452.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.60 | 10.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 44.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 10.83 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |