← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Tue, Feb 16, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lewis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 49% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +5% |
| Oldham win | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Forest Green −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Baily Cargill · Forest Green |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ian Lawlor · Oldham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Baily Cargill · Forest Green |
| 38' | 🟨 | Andrea Badan · Oldham |
| 40' | ⚽ | Bobby Grant · Oldham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcel Hilssner · Oldham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Conor McAleny · Oldham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Dan Sweeney · Forest Green |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jamille Matt · Forest Green |
| 63' | ⚽ | Conor McAleny · Oldham |
| 64' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | The innocent New Lawn Stadium |
| Odin Bailey · Forest Green |
| 67' | ⚽ | Josh Davison · Forest Green |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | — | 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1547.04 | 1458.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.54 | 4.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 45.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 17.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |