← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Huxtable
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Morecambe win | 37% | 34% | 2.56 | fair |
| Leyton Orient win | 34% | 42% | 2.84 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Morecambe +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Leyton Orient +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +4% |
| Over | 49% | 46% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Breyer Group Stadium |