← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 45% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.44 | fair |
| Port Vale win | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Ollie Clarke · Mansfield |
| 29' | 🟨 | Leon Legge · Port Vale |
| 32' | 🟨 | Scott Peter Andrew Brown · Port Vale |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 47' | 🟨 | Leon Legge · Port Vale |
| 47' | 🟥 | Leon Legge · Port Vale |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Montano · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shaun Brisley · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 62.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1298.57 | 1327.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.79 | -23.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.03 | 28.97 |
| state index | -0.68 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |