← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 53% | 61% | 1.81 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
| Bolton win | 20% | 17% | 4.95 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Carlisle −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.94 | value: +10% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Aaron Hayden · Carlisle |
| 7' | ⚽ | Lewis Alessandra · Carlisle |
| 22' | 🟨 | Gethin Jones · Bolton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Joe Riley · Carlisle |
| 36' | ⚽ | Omari Patrick · Carlisle |
| 43' | ⚽ | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rhys Bennett · Carlisle |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Carlisle |
| 50' | 🟨 | Peter Kioso · Bolton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Paul Farman · Carlisle |
| 81' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| George Thomason · Bolton |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nathan Delfouneso · Bolton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Peter Kioso · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peter Kioso · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Peter Kioso · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 421.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1521.93 | 1440.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.09 | -15.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.45 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.70 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |