← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 45% | 36% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.61 | value: +22% |
| Port Vale win | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 54% | 1.96 | value: +6% |
| Under | 50% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Luke Joyce · Port Vale |
| 30' | 🟨 | Zak Mills · Port Vale |
| 37' | ⚽ | Tom Pope · Port Vale |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tom Conlon · Port Vale |
| 45' | 🟨 | Devante Rodney · Port Vale |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jake Scrimshaw · Walsall |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dan Scarr · Walsall |
| 75' | ⚽ | Devante Rodney · Port Vale |
| 77' | 🟨 | Hayden White · Walsall |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jake Scrimshaw · Walsall |
| 82' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Banks's Stadium |
| Dan Scarr · Walsall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 621.00 | 1172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1519.40 | 1501.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.96 | -6.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.86 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| league points | 27.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |