← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 15, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe win | 39% | 41% | 2.46 | fair |
| Leyton Orient win | 32% | 27% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.39 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Morecambe −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +4% |
| Over | 45% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Harry Davis · Morecambe |
| 18' | ⚽ | Danny Johnson · Leyton Orient |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lee Angol · Leyton Orient |
| 56' | ⚽ | Samuel Lavelle · Morecambe |
| 68' | 🟨 | Craig Clay · Leyton Orient |
| 73' | ⚽ | Carlos Mendes Gomes · Morecambe |
| 78' | 🟨 | Samuel Lavelle · Morecambe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Yann Songo'o · Morecambe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ruel Sotiriou · Leyton Orient |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lawrence Vigouroux · Leyton Orient |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Globe Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Ajay Leitch-Smith · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 410.00 | 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1419.81 | 1467.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.43 | 36.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.32 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 25.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.16 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.98 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |