← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Hair
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 44% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
| Barrow win | 28% | 33% | 3.60 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Barrow −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 49% | 2.13 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Max Watters · Crawley Town |
| 33' | 🟨 | Tony Craig · Crawley Town |
| 33' | 🟨 | Connor Brown · Barrow |
| 33' | ⚽ | Josh Kay · Barrow |
| 38' | 🟨 | Tyler Frost · Crawley Town |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jake Hessenthaler · Crawley Town |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sam Hird · Barrow |
| 58' | ⚽ | Max Watters · Crawley Town |
| 68' | 🟨 | Connor Brown · Barrow |
| 68' | 🟥 | Connor Brown · Barrow |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | The People's Pension Stadium |
| Tom Nichols · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Platt · Barrow |
| 90' | ⚽ | Max Watters · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 377.00 | 164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1481.38 | 1446.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.46 | -31.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.93 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |