← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 40% | 35% | 2.44 | fair |
| Exeter win | 32% | 30% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Cheltenham −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 51% | 2.09 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Archie Collins · Exeter |
| 7' | ⚽ | Liam Sercombe · Cheltenham |
| 13' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Matty Blair · Cheltenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Liam Sercombe · Cheltenham |
| 47' | 🟨 | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Matt Jay · Exeter |
| 77' | ⚽ | Andy Williams · Cheltenham |
| 88' | ⚽ | Nicky Law · Exeter |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Jonny-Rocks Stadium |
| William Boyle · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 826.00 | 5271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1601.91 | 1577.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.11 | 13.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |