← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Tue, Nov 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 47% | 68% | 2.05 | value: +39% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.62 | fair |
| Oldham win | 26% | 16% | 3.78 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Barrow −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.06 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Scott Quigley · Barrow |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ben Garrity · Oldham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Danny Rowe · Oldham |
| 54' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Barrow |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bradley Barry · Barrow |
| 58' | 🟨 | Raphael Diarra · Oldham |
| 72' | 🟨 | Cameron Borthwick-Jackson · Oldham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Matthew Platt · Barrow |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Danny Rowe · Oldham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Josh Kay · Barrow |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barrow | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Progression Solicitors Stadium |
| Conor McAleny · Oldham |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Carl Piergianni · Barrow |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 146.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1479.52 | 1424.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.94 | 15.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |