← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Nov 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.32 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 23% | 23% | 4.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Port Vale −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 60% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Conlon · Port Vale |
| 24' | ⚽ | David Amoo · Port Vale |
| 45' | 🟨 | Scott Davies · Tranmere |
| 52' | 🟥 | Luke Joyce · Port Vale |
| 54' | 🟨 | Scott P. Brown · Port Vale |
| 58' | ⚽ | James Vaughan · Tranmere |
| 59' | 🟨 | Leon Legge · Port Vale |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | James Vaughan · Tranmere |
| 75' | ⚽ | Devante Rodney · Port Vale |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kaiyne Woolery · Tranmere |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.09 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| ⚽ |
| Kieron Morris · Tranmere |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1137.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1545.30 | 1473.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.47 | -16.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.62 |
| league points | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 10.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.48 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |