← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Sarginson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 40% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Scunthorpe win | 30% | 34% | 3.22 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Cambridge +0.25 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 43% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Mullin · Cambridge |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Mullin · Cambridge |
| 47' | 🟨 | Myles Hippolyte · Scunthorpe |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jake Taylor · Scunthorpe |
| 51' | ⚽ | Luke Hannant · Cambridge |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lewis Spence · Scunthorpe |
| 55' | 🟨 | Myles Hippolyte · Scunthorpe |
| 55' | 🟥 | Myles Hippolyte · Scunthorpe |
| 61' | ⚽ | Joe Ironside · Cambridge |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joe Ironside · Cambridge |
| 83' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 26 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Sands Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Joe Ironside · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 77.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1427.77 | 1460.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.56 | 36.09 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |