← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Haines
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 38% | 44% | 2.58 | value: +14% |
| Leyton Orient win | 33% | 24% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.33 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Leyton Orient +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 54% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 46% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Sam Ling · Leyton Orient |
| 9' | 🟥 | Daniel Happe · Leyton Orient |
| 16' | ⚽ | Josh Kay · Barrow |
| 50' | ⚽ | Danny Johnson · Leyton Orient |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lewis Hardcastle · Barrow |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ousseynou Cissé · Leyton Orient |
| 61' | 🟨 | Danny Johnson · Leyton Orient |
| 63' | 🟨 | Louis Dennis · Leyton Orient |
| 68' | 🟨 | Josh Kay · Barrow |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jobi McAnuff · Leyton Orient |
| 82' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barrow | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | — | 2.40 |
| venue | Progression Solicitors Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Tom Beadling · Barrow |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dior Angus · Barrow |
| 87' | 🟨 | Conor Wilkinson · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 101.00 | 344.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.52 |
| elo | 1476.14 | 1406.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | 11.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | — | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | — | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | — | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.75 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.75 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.25 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.25 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 1.20 |