← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 45% | 41% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
| Oldham win | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Oldham −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Cohen Bramall · Colchester |
| 18' | 🟨 | Courtney Senior · Colchester |
| 27' | ⚽ | Ben Stevenson · Colchester |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Callum Harriott · Colchester |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Conor McAleny · Oldham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Carl Piergianni · Oldham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Miles Welch-Hayes · Colchester |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ben Stevenson · Colchester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jordan Barnett · Oldham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Miles Welch-Hayes · Colchester |
| 89' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Conor McAleny · Oldham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 94.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1556.75 | 1411.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.18 | -37.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |