← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Tue, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Kettle
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 49% | 55% | 1.98 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Port Vale win | 22% | 19% | 4.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Forest Green −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 47% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Shaun Brisley · Port Vale |
| 38' | ⚽ | Tom Pope · Port Vale |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam Kitching · Forest Green |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Pope · Port Vale |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Carl Winchester · Forest Green |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cristian Montano · Port Vale |
| 83' | 🟨 | Leon Legge · Port Vale |
| 84' | 🟨 | Shaun Brisley · Port Vale |
| 87' | 🟥 | Mitchell Clark · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Pope · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Pope · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 28 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | The New Lawn |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tom Pope · Port Vale |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carl Winchester · Forest Green |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| — |
| 860.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1479.23 | 1482.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -62.46 | 27.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 69.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| league points | 45.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 55.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -2.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.00 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |