← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Tue, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Exeter win | 52% | 59% | 1.90 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Oldham win | 20% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Exeter −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Oldham −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 45% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 55% | 2.15 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand