← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 46% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Mansfield win | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Bradford −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Adam Henley · Bradford |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | James Vaughan · Bradford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ryan Sweeney · Mansfield |
| 40' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Mansfield |
| 48' | 🟨 | Krystian Pearce · Mansfield |
| 61' | 🟨 | Willem Tomlinson · Mansfield |
| 63' | 🟨 | Dylan Connolly · Bradford |
| 70' | 🟨 | James Vaughan · Bradford |
| 79' | 🟨 | James Clarke · Mansfield |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | James Vaughan · Bradford |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Northern Commercials Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Matt Preston · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 303.00 | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1547.24 | 1485.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.71 | -26.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 37.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |