← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 43% | 37% | 2.25 | fair |
| Northampton win | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.58 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Northampton −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 44% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 56% | 1.95 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Alan McCormack · Northampton |
| 36' | 🟨 | James Clarke · Mansfield |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Northampton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ryan Watson · Northampton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Paul Anderson · Northampton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Mansfield |
| 72' | 🟨 | Andy Cook · Mansfield |
| 74' | ⚽ | Andy Cook · Mansfield |
| 84' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Preston · Mansfield |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Neal Bishop · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 660.00 | 446.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1488.51 | 1559.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.83 | 20.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 22.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |