← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kettle
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Leyton Orient win | 28% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | George Marsh · Leyton Orient |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jamie Turley · Leyton Orient |
| 36' | ⚽ | Josh Wright · Leyton Orient |
| 38' | 🟨 | Craig Clay · Leyton Orient |
| 40' | 🟨 | Luke Hannant · Cambridge |
| 41' | 🟨 | Reggie Lambe · Cambridge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lee Angol · Leyton Orient |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jordan Maguire-Drew · Leyton Orient |
| 65' | 🟨 | Myles Judd · Leyton Orient |
| 67' | 🟨 | James Brophy · Leyton Orient |
| 69' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Jack Roles · Cambridge |
| 76' | 🟨 | Greg Taylor · Cambridge |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jamie Turley · Leyton Orient |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 84' | 🟨 | Reggie Lambe · Cambridge |
| 84' | 🟥 | Reggie Lambe · Cambridge |
| 85' | 🟨 | Myles Judd · Leyton Orient |
| 85' | 🟥 | Myles Judd · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 385.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1463.22 | 1357.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.42 | -20.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |