← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| Scunthorpe win | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Scunthorpe −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 55% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 45% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | James Perch · Scunthorpe |
| 9' | 🟨 | Kevin van Veen · Scunthorpe |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lee Novak · Scunthorpe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dominic Bernard · Forest Green |
| 48' | 🟨 | Harrison McGahey · Scunthorpe |
| 52' | 🟨 | Levi Sutton · Scunthorpe |
| 57' | ⚽ | Alex Gilliead · Scunthorpe |
| 71' | ⚽ | Abo Eisa · Scunthorpe |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kgosi Ntlhe · Scunthorpe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Levi Sutton · Scunthorpe |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 24 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | The New Lawn |
| 🟥 |
| Levi Sutton · Scunthorpe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | — | 220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 4.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1568.35 | 1533.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.15 | 28.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.92 |
| league points | 35.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 10.80 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |