← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
| Oldham win | 22% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Oldham −0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Nicky Maynard · Mansfield |
| 33' | 🟨 | Filipe Morais · Oldham |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nicky Maynard · Mansfield |
| 37' | 🟥 | Tomas Egert · Oldham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Filipe Morais · Oldham |
| 38' | 🟥 | Filipe Morais · Oldham |
| 43' | ⚽ | Thomas Hamer · Oldham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nicky Maynard · Mansfield |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | David Wheater · Mansfield |
| 65' | 🟨 | Krystian Pearce · Mansfield |
| 66' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 32 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Oladapo Afolayan · Mansfield |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Jimmy Knowles · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Sweeney · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 590.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1510.71 | 1468.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.42 | 1.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.10 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.67 | 4.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |