← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Huxtable
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 56% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.08 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 20% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Grimsby −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 43% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 57% | 2.10 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Liam Gibson · Grimsby |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ethan Robson · Grimsby |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ethan Robson · Grimsby |
| 32' | 🟨 | Archie Collins · Exeter |
| 59' | 🟨 | Dean Moxey · Exeter |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Moses Ogbu · Grimsby |
| 67' | ⚽ | Ethan Robson · Grimsby |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jake Hessenthaler · Grimsby |
| 76' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 77' | 🟨 | Max Wright · Grimsby |
| 82' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 4837.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| Jake Taylor · Exeter |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ryan Bowman · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1564.32 | 1452.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.37 | 7.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 68.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.50 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.50 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |