← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Tue, Sep 17, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 38% | 36% | 2.55 | fair |
| Stevenage win | 32% | 34% | 3.04 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage +0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Northampton +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +5% |
| Over | 46% | 42% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Christopher Stokes · Stevenage |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Northampton |
| 38' | 🟨 | Charlie Goode · Northampton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Luther James-Wildin · Stevenage |
| 56' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Northampton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Shaun McWilliams · Northampton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Paul Farman · Stevenage |
| 67' | 🟨 | Harry Smith · Northampton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Harry Smith · Northampton |
| 68' | 🟥 | Harry Smith · Northampton |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| coach days |
| venue | The Lamex Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Vadaine Oliver · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 565.00 |
| 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1448.27 | 1533.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.42 | 25.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.75 | 58.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.36 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 60.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.50 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |