← EFL League Two 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G Salisbury
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Notts County win | 38% | 32% | 2.52 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 34% | 37% | 2.87 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.