← EFL League Two 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T Bramall
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Exeter win | 52% | 43% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.81 | value: +12% |
| Crawley Town win | 23% | 27% | 4.23 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.