← EFL League Two 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C Sarginson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Colchester win | 59% | 54% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.13 | value: +10% |
| Grimsby win | 18% | 19% | 5.48 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 1 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.