← EFL League Two 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G Salisbury
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Forest Green win | 51% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
| Carlisle win | 22% | 30% | 4.42 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.