← EFL League Two 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Salisbury
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Coventry win | 59% | 61% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.97 | fair |
| Stevenage win | 16% | 16% | 5.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.