← EFL League Two 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O Yates
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Coventry win | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.45 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 16% | 27% | 5.91 | value: +58% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.