← EFL League Two 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C Sarginson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stevenage win | 38% | 37% | 2.56 | fair |
| Colchester win | 34% | 32% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.47 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.