← EFL League Two 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: N Miller
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Portsmouth win | 64% | 63% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.63 | value: +9% |
| Notts County win | 15% | 14% | 6.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.