← EFL League Two 2015-16 · Tue, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D Bond
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Carlisle win | 56% | 47% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.82 | value: +12% |
| Hartlepool win | 18% | 23% | 5.32 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.